cezarn132
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
- Realised P&L
- $-15.9k
- Volume
- $5.39M
- Markets traded
- 222
- Open portfolio
- $51.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded222
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.4kat 0.724Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$21.6kat 0.838Euro Basket: France vs Poland
- +$19.7kat 0.766Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$13.5kat 0.708Will Poland win on 2025-10-12?
- +$12.4kat 0.917Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:04 | Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.8278918907 | $370.00 |
| 10-16 18:03 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.790337663 | $1000.00 |
| 10-11 11:50 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.705172954 | $510.00 |
| 10-11 11:50 | Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6635286098 | $150.00 |
| 10-11 11:49 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6778985472 | $500.00 |
| 10-03 11:29 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $100.00 |
| 10-03 11:26 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | BUY | 0.7042187397 | $150.00 |
| 10-03 11:24 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.6799996464 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 11:22 | Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9173580305 | $350.00 |
| 09-28 16:13 | Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9249646405 | $350.00 |
| 08-06 15:56 | KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9526296168 | $9.7k |
| 07-30 13:35 | NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? | BUY | 0.6515848436 | $500.00 |
| 07-30 13:32 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9491830946 | $10.0k |
| 07-29 18:28 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? | SELL | 0.0694105402 | $1.5k |
| 07-29 16:22 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? | BUY | 0.79 | $20.0k |