cezarn132
0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e
- Realised P&L
- $-11.2k
- Volume
- $5.50M
- Markets traded
- 217
- Open portfolio
- $62.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded217
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.4kat 0.724Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
- +$21.6kat 0.838Euro Basket: France vs Poland
- +$19.7kat 0.766Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$13.5kat 0.708Will Poland win on 2025-10-12?
- +$12.4kat 0.917Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 15:56 | KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.9526296168 | $9.7k |
| 07-30 13:35 | NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? | BUY | 0.6515848436 | $500.00 |
| 07-30 13:32 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9491830946 | $10.0k |
| 07-29 18:28 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? | SELL | 0.0694105402 | $1.5k |
| 07-29 16:22 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? | BUY | 0.79 | $20.0k |
| 07-28 15:03 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $10.0k |
| 07-28 15:03 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $10.0k |
| 07-28 15:01 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 07-28 15:01 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.0k |
| 07-26 15:48 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9447392927 | $1.7k |
| 07-26 15:47 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | BUY | 0.9545687228 | $17.0k |
| 07-26 15:46 | Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 07-26 15:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.5990744539 | $5.0k |
| 07-11 18:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.6791664395 | $15.0k |
| 07-09 18:02 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.967 | $10.0k |