PolyBot

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Traders

cezarn132

0x5f176a980de5b25f89f17473e5e8adef565c519e

Realised P&L
$-15.9k
Volume
$5.39M
Markets traded
222
Open portfolio
$51.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded222
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration66.7% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · No0.6140.945$34.6k+$12.1k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.6350.115$4.5k−$20.5k
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas by December 31, 2026? · No0.7500.950$4.1k+$850.13
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by December 31, 2026? · No0.7850.965$3.8k+$708.92
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? · No0.5680.967$2.2k+$913.30
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? · Yes0.7540.775$1.7k+$46.17
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.6780.715$528.42+$27.42
Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.7730.470$316.30−$203.70
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.9400.945$100.53+$0.53
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No0.5900.000$0.00−$1.00
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.2890.000$0.00−$1.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No0.6700.000$0.00−$1.00
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? · No0.7280.000$0.00−$38.3k
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? · Yes0.6310.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29? · No0.7900.000$0.00−$3.1k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-16 18:04Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?BUY0.8278918907$370.00
10-16 18:03Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?BUY0.790337663$1000.00
10-11 11:50Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?BUY0.705172954$510.00
10-11 11:50Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?BUY0.6635286098$150.00
10-11 11:49Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?BUY0.6778985472$500.00
10-03 11:29Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.9399999996$100.00
10-03 11:26Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?BUY0.7042187397$150.00
10-03 11:24Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?BUY0.6799996464$1.00
10-03 11:22Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?BUY0.9173580305$350.00
09-28 16:13Will Łukasz Gibała win the 2026 Kraków mayoral election?BUY0.9249646405$350.00
08-06 15:56KKS Lech Poznań vs. KÍ: Team to AdvanceBUY0.9526296168$9.7k
07-30 13:35NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?BUY0.6515848436$500.00
07-30 13:32Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.9491830946$10.0k
07-29 18:28Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29?SELL0.0694105402$1.5k
07-29 16:22Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-07-29?BUY0.79$20.0k