0x5e93348F5F69Ed3C7CA7413128360f189F38f9bf-1776735969295
0x5e93348f5f69ed3c7ca7413128360f189f38f9bf
- Realised P&L
- $-74.79
- Volume
- $3.2k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $42.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.235 | $28.20 | −$1.80 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.029 | $14.32 | −$0.68 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? · No | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET · Down | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.51at 0.829Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
- +$7.16at 0.850Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
- +$6.94at 0.598Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
- +$5.79at 0.633Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
- +$5.14at 0.660US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $6.87 |
| 09-17 18:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 18:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET | BUY | 0.7199999654 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 02:07 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0298503304 | $15.00 |
| 08-15 00:39 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $30.00 |
| 07-31 00:57 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | SELL | 0.52 | $53.33 |
| 07-31 00:55 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.21 |
| 07-30 16:03 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5399999654 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 16:02 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $8.33 |
| 07-23 01:37 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 02:29 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.299999982 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 03:22 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | BUY | 0.2340590663 | $10.00 |
| 07-17 01:49 | Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.0809999951 | $15.00 |
| 07-17 01:49 | Will Trump accuse Russia of election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.1274301895 | $10.00 |
| 07-11 14:20 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5399999943 | $40.00 |