0x5E921d4dAe6121A7A7a5D67f85bABb0960BBb53f-1759831548973
0x5e921d4dae6121a7a7a5d67f85babb0960bbb53f
- Realised P&L
- $-212.78
- Volume
- $72.0k
- Markets traded
- 198
- Open portfolio
- $46.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded198
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? · Yes | 0.136 | 0.065 | $35.75 | −$39.25 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? · No | 0.180 | 0.043 | $8.60 | −$27.40 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.006 | $2.31 | −$12.61 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$306.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.96at 0.279US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
- +$125.53at 0.109US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$90.76at 0.258Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9PM ET
- +$54.74at 0.162Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11AM ET
- +$52.37at 0.024Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 15:26 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.009 | $7.20 |
| 08-28 15:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.51 | $306.00 |
| 08-26 12:40 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.042 | $14.91 |
| 07-29 20:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.45 | $143.52 |
| 07-28 23:34 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29? | BUY | 0.1789998588 | $1.00 |
| 07-28 22:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 07-26 03:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.786 | $110.04 |
| 07-26 03:19 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | SELL | 0.6846171604 | $88.97 |
| 07-25 10:31 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? | BUY | 0.57 | $17.10 |
| 07-24 01:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.737 | $5.90 |
| 07-23 21:49 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25? | BUY | 0.15 | $18.00 |
| 07-23 21:48 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24? | BUY | 0.35 | $10.50 |
| 07-23 12:27 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.79 |
| 07-23 12:25 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21? | SELL | 0.7478066667 | $22.43 |
| 07-23 12:23 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | BUY | 0.18 | $36.00 |