0x5e3ec40a0370994cc32e51ab0666152d5e58d7b4
0x5e3ec40a0370994cc32e51ab0666152d5e58d7b4
- Realised P&L
- $8.55
- Volume
- $128.20
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $82.17
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.956 | $29.10 | +$0.49 |
| Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? · No | 0.930 | 0.967 | $11.89 | +$0.45 |
| Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 1.000 | $11.11 | +$1.22 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 1.000 | $10.58 | +$0.95 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.695 | $8.21 | −$1.24 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.555 | $7.08 | −$3.25 |
| Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.840 | $4.20 | +$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.05at 0.710U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31?
- +$1.41at 0.872Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?
- +$0.92at 0.900Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?