Koteji
0x5e103934dcb85ecf21600af1afb0fe37a3009356
- Realised P&L
- $-210.07
- Volume
- $19.5k
- Markets traded
- 265
- Open portfolio
- $428.81
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded265
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.380 | $273.80 | −$57.51 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? · No | 0.609 | 0.605 | $119.28 | −$0.72 |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? · No | 0.276 | 0.335 | $35.73 | +$6.33 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.272 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.92at 0.411Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
- +$40.45at 0.110Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
- +$34.93at 0.583Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
- +$33.93at 0.658Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
- +$31.98at 0.539Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 17:05 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? | BUY | 0.1703738475 | $4.40 |
| 07-17 05:08 | SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? | BUY | 0.3243243059 | $10.00 |
| 07-16 23:26 | Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.27 | $13.50 |
| 07-16 23:25 | Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.2766941922 | $40.00 |
| 06-01 09:23 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2719999075 | $2.00 |
| 06-01 09:22 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 05-28 13:38 | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $30.36 |
| 05-28 13:38 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.38 | $6.78 |
| 05-28 13:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $6.04 |
| 05-28 13:18 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SELL | 0.29 | $29.05 |
| 05-23 06:17 | Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.5804838604 | $23.60 |
| 05-23 06:16 | Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | SELL | 0.33 | $22.17 |
| 05-21 11:16 | Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999776 | $10.00 |
| 05-21 11:15 | Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? | SELL | 0.87 | $12.61 |
| 05-18 18:57 | Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | BUY | 0.5651415522 | $14.50 |