PuffyCrow2026
0x5db449c295056c376c8c752ac346247ff18d5b2f
- Realised P&L
- $-126.38
- Volume
- $20.5k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $77.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$83.75at 0.711Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
- +$54.17at 0.121Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
- +$49.45at 0.386Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?
- +$25.08at 0.304Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
- +$18.50at 0.570US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-26 17:48 | Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.14 | $7.00 |
| 06-26 16:25 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.033 | $2.48 |
| 06-25 19:38 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.36 | $9.00 |
| 06-25 19:35 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.36 | $9.00 |
| 06-24 21:33 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.135 | $3.38 |
| 06-24 21:28 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.15 | $7.50 |
| 06-24 21:23 | Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.13 | $6.50 |
| 06-24 21:22 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.208 | $20.80 |
| 06-24 21:19 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | SELL | 0.36 | $18.00 |
| 06-24 21:15 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | BUY | 0.37 | $18.50 |
| 06-24 21:14 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.206 | $20.60 |
| 06-24 21:12 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.207 | $10.35 |
| 06-21 19:25 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.09 |
| 06-14 22:42 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.008 | $3.88 |
| 06-14 22:37 | Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.50 |