CybrMadHatter
0x5db4299d97dbe735dff0e1fb817955ab5c6e29c1
- Realised P&L
- $-657.88
- Volume
- $45.1k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $16.46
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration64.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.004 | $16.46 | −$96.24 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.197 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$193.93 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.421 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.169 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$390.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.500Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$1.7kat 0.140Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$-4.25at 0.002Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$-356.35at 0.405Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
- +$-943.52at 0.209Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 18:06 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1969999993 | $193.93 |
| 05-19 22:27 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 05-19 22:27 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.1061323425 | $192.29 |
| 05-19 19:28 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.4 | $197.25 |
| 05-18 17:44 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | SELL | 0.0449255996 | $44.21 |
| 05-05 07:47 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 05-05 07:46 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.3957245127 | $388.46 |
| 03-26 18:01 | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.023961354 | $112.70 |
| 03-26 18:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $112.70 |
| 03-09 18:18 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.2798624238 | $462.88 |
| 03-03 22:53 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.25 |
| 03-03 22:50 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 03-02 20:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.3599999996 | $432.83 |
| 03-01 23:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.4746460376 | $2.7k |
| 03-01 13:59 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $6.2k |