ballsinyourjaw
0x5d93600f39fb959ea7895ae803afb7b8887488a8
- Realised P&L
- $15.32
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $199.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.950 | 0.936 | $55.25 | −$0.80 |
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-05 House seat? · No | 0.995 | 0.998 | $51.87 | +$0.13 |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.971 | 0.969 | $51.36 | −$0.11 |
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-08 House seat? · No | 0.971 | 0.980 | $31.76 | +$0.26 |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? · No | 0.948 | 0.928 | $9.64 | −$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.68at 0.820Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
- +$2.59at 0.952Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.31at 0.958Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$1.82at 0.968Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$1.15at 0.977Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-06 10:29 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? | SELL | 0.903 | $45.15 |
| 04-15 12:17 | Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | BUY | 0.9299999991 | $19.99 |