cristianopro-10-July-26
0x5d64ed54426fbe95bf5e01bacedcd347a19c3c50
- Realised P&L
- $-376.90
- Volume
- $23.2k
- Markets traded
- 2,351
- Open portfolio
- $12.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,351
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.570 | 0.865 | $3.49 | +$1.19 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.866 | $3.23 | +$1.18 |
| Will Poland win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.725 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.505 | $1.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.553 | 0.135 | $0.85 | −$2.63 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.737 | 0.134 | $0.67 | −$3.01 |
| Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.215 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.120 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| Will Abo Qir Semad SC vs. Asyut Petroleum SC end in a draw? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Abo Qir Semad SC win on 2026-10-13? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$387.08at 0.027Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
- +$36.20at 0.837Will David Crowley win Kenosha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?
- +$26.48at 0.285Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
- +$23.93at 0.043Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
- +$22.98at 0.315Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 12:20 | Will Abo Qir Semad SC vs. Asyut Petroleum SC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:20 | Will Abo Qir Semad SC win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:20 | Will Belgium win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:20 | Will Poland win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:19 | Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:19 | Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 12:16 | Will Johor Darul Ta'zim win on 2026-10-13? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.38 |
| 10-13 12:16 | Will Shanghai Port FC vs. Daejeon Citizen FC end in a draw? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.84 |
| 10-13 03:06 | Will Shanghai Port FC vs. Daejeon Citizen FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 03:06 | Will Shanghai Port FC win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 03:05 | Will FC Pohang Steelers vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 03:05 | Will Johor Darul Ta'zim win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 02:37 | Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 12? | SELL | 0.998 | $2.77 |
| 10-13 02:36 | Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-10-12? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.32 |
| 10-13 02:35 | Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-10-12? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.32 |