afaus
0x5d5db930389105ecc1927de972696a4e52ba6be6
- Realised P&L
- $6.7k
- Volume
- $1.55M
- Markets traded
- 528
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded528
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.8kat 0.642Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.5kat 0.582Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
- +$1.4kat 0.594Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
- +$1.2kat 0.941Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?
- +$1.1kat 0.492Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 15:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in November? | BUY | 0.64 | $70.40 |
| 11-01 03:04 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.886 | $81.86 |
| 10-31 12:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in November? | BUY | 0.67 | $46.26 |
| 10-31 12:44 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in November? | BUY | 0.66 | $10.79 |
| 10-30 11:56 | Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? | BUY | 0.76 | $152.00 |
| 10-30 06:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $545.31 |
| 10-28 18:02 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 10-28 07:11 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | SELL | 0.19 | $114.00 |
| 10-24 10:20 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.21 | $126.00 |
| 10-24 01:53 | France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.9k |
| 10-22 14:20 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $106.23 |
| 10-22 14:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $46.80 |
| 10-22 14:17 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.924 | $27.71 |
| 10-05 09:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.93 | $186.00 |
| 10-03 01:49 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $40.00 |