PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

GrayTremor

0x5ce3c43f2b2be1b51ec5f4920acbf7340733f779

Realised P&L
$5.8k
Volume
$609.1k
Markets traded
560
Open portfolio
$12.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded560
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? · Yes0.6470.905$3.1k+$880.49
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No0.7880.795$1.3k+$11.31
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? · No0.6400.905$1.3k+$373.81
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? · Yes0.8250.985$902.59+$146.64
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? · Yes0.8940.907$827.94+$12.15
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? · Yes0.7600.775$544.66+$10.23
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? · Yes0.9410.958$454.56+$7.88
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0080.460$393.24+$386.55
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? · Yes0.7990.980$277.02+$50.99
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026? · No0.6390.900$263.43+$76.22
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? · Yes0.7860.865$242.72+$22.16
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0080.278$237.48+$230.80
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? · No0.9440.950$190.11+$1.10
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026? · No0.8600.860$172.00+$0.00
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat? · Yes0.8470.920$169.76+$13.42

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 20:44Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?BUY0.986$198.36
07-30 06:26SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? SELL0.999$999.00
07-25 03:09Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.977$199.31
07-25 02:20Will Trump say "Lion" in July?BUY0.2208762012$15.63
07-25 01:35Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by July 31?BUY0.0912321429$5.11
07-24 04:40Will Avengers: Secret Wars be delayed?BUY0.2546156095$8.71
07-24 04:38Will Avengers: Secret Wars be delayed?BUY0.1271447636$18.10
07-22 10:37Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?BUY0.1372773973$12.83
07-22 09:51Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?BUY0.779651711$51.26
07-21 01:47Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?SELL0.9156708533$707.17
07-21 00:27Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?BUY0.977$14.80
07-20 22:08Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?BUY0.944$94.61
07-20 04:10Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?BUY0.7817565701$447.09
07-19 20:11Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group H?BUY0.58$17.39
07-18 16:29Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?SELL0.9729801961$49.62