PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

xcdef

0x5cb0ec037d3a7c9628a2aad43ffc3b4e6b5918ee

Realised P&L
$-5.21
Volume
$8.9k
Markets traded
107
Open portfolio
$12.69

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded107
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? · No0.9970.999$5.01+$0.01
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 October 5-11? · No0.9991.000$5.00+$0.00
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No0.7500.745$1.89−$0.01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0020.002$0.80−$0.26
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 15? · No0.0030.000$0.00−$1.70
Pirates vs. Reds · Reds0.5200.000$0.00−$5.00
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00−$1.50
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 16? · No0.0030.000$0.00−$1.80
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 3? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 6? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-08 13:08Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October?BUY0.9969998281$5.00
10-08 13:04Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.002$1.06
10-08 13:01Will Ethereum reach $3,300 October 5-11?BUY0.999$5.00
10-08 13:00Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?BUY0.7499998026$1.90
09-04 09:02Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?BUY0.999$13.00
08-06 09:29Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August?BUY0.999$13.00
07-29 12:05Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.999$13.00
06-09 12:46Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10?BUY0.999$94.00
06-06 02:17Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6?BUY0.999$94.00
05-25 12:42Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26?BUY0.999$94.00
05-21 11:14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?BUY0.998$94.00
05-15 11:27Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?BUY0.999$88.00
05-15 11:27Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on May 17?BUY0.999$1.30
05-15 11:26Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15?BUY0.99799901$1.00
05-15 11:26Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 15?BUY0.9989994621$1.30