xcdef
0x5cb0ec037d3a7c9628a2aad43ffc3b4e6b5918ee
- Realised P&L
- $-5.21
- Volume
- $8.9k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $12.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? · No | 0.997 | 0.999 | $5.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,300 October 5-11? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? · No | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.89 | −$0.01 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.80 | −$0.26 |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 15? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
| Pirates vs. Reds · Reds | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 16? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 3? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 6? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.95at 0.520Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights
- +$0.99at 0.680Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4?
- +$0.95at 0.760Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 21?
- +$0.18at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 13:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9969998281 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 13:04 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.06 |
| 10-08 13:01 | Will Ethereum reach $3,300 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 10-08 13:00 | Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7499998026 | $1.90 |
| 09-04 09:02 | Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 08-06 09:29 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 07-29 12:05 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.00 |
| 06-09 12:46 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 06-06 02:17 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-25 12:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-21 11:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? | BUY | 0.998 | $94.00 |
| 05-15 11:27 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 05-15 11:27 | Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on May 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.30 |
| 05-15 11:26 | Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 05-15 11:26 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 15? | BUY | 0.9989994621 | $1.30 |