0x5cac6d5cfd4c9306a5106aeb009c138dd126eedf
0x5cac6d5cfd4c9306a5106aeb009c138dd126eedf
- Realised P&L
- $-6.48
- Volume
- $722.42
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $7.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.955 | $3.03 | +$1.03 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? · Up | 0.390 | 0.760 | $1.95 | +$0.95 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 15? · Up | 0.710 | 0.995 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? · No | 0.610 | 0.755 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$6.20at 0.249Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 13:40 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 05:04 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:04 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 12:24 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 03:57 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on October 14? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 19:55 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 11:52 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:17 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:34 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:56 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.203999991 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:29 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:24 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:20 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:17 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7989999696 | $1.00 |