LisaSantos8792
0x5c5526f6580673885a688f156be1ec18db836bbe
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $40.2k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $89.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? · Yes | 0.790 | 1.000 | $55.00 | +$11.55 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.710 | 0.446 | $22.75 | −$13.46 |
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.107 | $8.77 | −$19.11 |
| Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.786 | 0.854 | $2.56 | +$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$174.92at 0.601Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
- +$122.45at 0.840Will there be at least 700 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
- +$88.80at 0.190Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
- +$59.46at 0.450Will LA CANCIÓN be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?
- +$55.98at 0.700Will King Charles say "Independence" during the joint meeting of Congress?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 16:48 | Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? | SELL | 0.71 | $243.53 |
| 04-09 12:25 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | SELL | 0.67 | $137.35 |
| 04-09 10:11 | Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $288.32 |
| 03-25 18:39 | Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-04? | SELL | 0.49 | $66.64 |
| 03-25 03:09 | Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-04-04? | BUY | 0.55 | $74.80 |
| 03-19 06:07 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $22.20 |
| 03-19 06:07 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $43.66 |
| 03-19 06:05 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $65.86 |
| 03-19 06:04 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $82.88 |
| 03-19 06:03 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $89.54 |
| 03-19 06:02 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $93.98 |
| 03-19 06:01 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $17.02 |
| 03-12 21:17 | Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $258.64 |
| 03-11 05:35 | U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | SELL | 0.62 | $18.60 |
| 03-06 05:16 | Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $387.09 |