0x5c470ebc22141df9e661ff906f017eeaa2cdccb4
0x5c470ebc22141df9e661ff906f017eeaa2cdccb4
- Realised P&L
- $-14.29
- Volume
- $173.43
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $2.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.795 | $1.32 | +$0.33 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.590 | $0.74 | −$0.26 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.265 | $0.37 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.38at 0.349WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 10?
- +$2.69at 0.460Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?
- +$1.76at 0.570Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
- +$1.55at 0.600Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$1.40at 0.620US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:04 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:05 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:36 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:13 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:16 | Will Costco say "GLP-1" or "GLP 1" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:28 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7480074892 | $2.29 |
| 09-19 05:24 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.6199999621 | $2.29 |
| 09-18 15:02 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18? | BUY | 0.6899999126 | $2.29 |
| 09-16 07:57 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.6299999367 | $2.29 |
| 09-15 23:56 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299999512 | $2.29 |
| 09-14 02:18 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999741 | $2.29 |
| 09-13 18:18 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.3399999555 | $2.29 |
| 09-11 15:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.229999994 | $2.29 |
| 09-11 01:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 11? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.29 |
| 09-10 05:28 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 10? | BUY | 0.3399999555 | $2.29 |