samson28
0x5c3a91341234a57c487db73d0f05676bd346c9e1
- Realised P&L
- $-476.12
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $183.16
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.845 | $183.16 | +$40.10 |
| Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 600.0k by May 31? · No | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? · No | 0.781 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$114.77 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? · Yes | 0.549 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$90.88 |
| Will "28 Years Later: Bone Temple" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$240.00 |
| Will "Resident Evil" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$176.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.64at 0.560US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$48.30at 0.676Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$37.33at 0.718OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 26?
- +$34.11at 0.738Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?
- +$32.31at 0.733US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 09:29 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6599999993 | $143.06 |
| 09-26 06:56 | OpenAI resets Codex weekly limit on September 26? | BUY | 0.7098568928 | $94.00 |
| 09-09 14:40 | Will "Resident Evil" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.7304812098 | $176.00 |
| 08-21 13:02 | Houthis successfully target shipping by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7914324608 | $102.00 |
| 07-23 11:36 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.5599999975 | $61.90 |
| 07-23 11:35 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9835960656 | $15.00 |
| 06-25 03:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999996 | $98.29 |
| 06-25 03:24 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $100.80 |
| 06-16 11:47 | US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7333926065 | $130.00 |
| 06-01 02:20 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? | BUY | 0.729999994 | $94.99 |
| 05-21 13:59 | Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? | BUY | 0.84375 | $67.50 |
| 05-21 13:37 | Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $9.94 |
| 05-21 13:37 | Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 600.0k by May 31? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 05-21 13:26 | Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? | BUY | 0.706875 | $11.31 |
| 05-21 13:26 | Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31? | BUY | 0.7033486486 | $26.02 |