stavr
0x5c22ffa6212e28591ad30e82894c5ef46d74e4db
- Realised P&L
- $-680.78
- Volume
- $450.5k
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $15.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.037Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.0kat 0.599Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.070Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$266.16at 0.784Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
- +$261.10at 0.250US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 10:25 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.0429999606 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 10:03 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 07-30 12:36 | NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $3.22 |
| 07-30 01:49 | NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 07-30 01:46 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0788967279 | $8.00 |
| 07-30 01:46 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0930003 | $9.30 |
| 07-30 01:44 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0790769089 | $3.00 |
| 07-28 13:37 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.43 |
| 07-27 14:11 | NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31? | BUY | 0.3399999728 | $7.00 |
| 07-27 07:59 | Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 07-26 17:51 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $15.00 |
| 07-24 11:38 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7384763231 | $600.00 |
| 07-24 11:36 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999976 | $35.00 |
| 07-24 11:35 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 07-24 11:29 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6996327119 | $33.00 |