0x5bd968597980136ffe0dcb95bba127057470912d
0x5bd968597980136ffe0dcb95bba127057470912d
- Realised P&L
- $3.75
- Volume
- $290.50
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $11.63
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? · No | 0.506 | 0.969 | $1.91 | +$0.91 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.540 | 1.000 | $1.85 | +$0.85 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? · Up | 0.550 | 1.000 | $1.82 | +$0.82 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? · No | 0.590 | 1.000 | $1.69 | +$0.69 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.689 | 0.872 | $1.27 | +$0.27 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? · No | 0.280 | 0.315 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? · No | 0.800 | 0.785 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.195 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.064 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.41at 0.370US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$3.07at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 09:30 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 09:30 | Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 01:30 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 17:29 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 09:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 00:49 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:49 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 08:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:55 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6889999097 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:32 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:59 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.5059998937 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:12 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 09:38 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 01:07 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 04:22 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |