MarioChristian1918
0x5bcb4d1f527d4e098d15a5d92e8cf23d237ef59b
- Realised P&L
- $-625.87
- Volume
- $316.2k
- Markets traded
- 451
- Open portfolio
- $319.18
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded451
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.720 | 0.968 | $116.10 | +$29.70 |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? · No | 0.914 | 1.000 | $92.00 | +$7.91 |
| Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026? · No | 0.090 | 0.734 | $68.22 | +$59.85 |
| Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? · No | 0.780 | 1.000 | $25.00 | +$5.50 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.695 | $16.68 | −$1.08 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.35 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · No | 0.880 | 0.180 | $0.18 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$956.08at 0.320UNCW Seahawks vs. Charleston Cougars
- +$374.65at 0.410Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 26 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?
- +$321.65at 0.171Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?
- +$297.94at 0.378Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?
- +$250.60at 0.650Will "Gang" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-24 04:54 | Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Utah State Aggies | BUY | 0.499 | $933.63 |
| 04-12 01:21 | Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-18? | SELL | 0.4 | $51.60 |
| 04-12 01:20 | Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-18? | SELL | 0.4 | $59.20 |
| 04-12 00:27 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $173.02 |
| 04-11 17:39 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.79 | $421.86 |
| 04-07 18:44 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $581.10 |
| 03-30 15:49 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.84 | $223.44 |
| 03-30 15:40 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $112.37 |
| 03-30 01:08 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.84 | $223.44 |
| 03-30 00:39 | Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $85.93 |
| 03-29 23:09 | Will FK Dukla Praha win on 2026-04-18? | BUY | 0.69 | $191.13 |
| 03-22 18:22 | Will "Gang" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | BUY | 0.65 | $465.40 |
| 03-22 14:12 | Will Trump say "Death Tax" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.45 | $59.85 |
| 03-22 11:34 | Will Trump say "Death Tax" this week? (March 29) | SELL | 0.42 | $207.48 |
| 03-21 18:14 | MARA sells any Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $5.64 |