0x5bb720b9f3e878c100fa905f5a9d5bf17af96f64
- Realised P&L
- $6.9k
- Volume
- $432.5k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $30.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.0kat 0.005Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$3.1kat 0.047US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$346.15at 0.062Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$73.71at 0.318Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?
- +$28.79at 0.406Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 05:47 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $16.36 |
| 08-12 05:45 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $13.27 |
| 08-10 07:45 | Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | SELL | 0.021 | $34.49 |
| 08-06 13:39 | Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.0450314816 | $19.90 |
| 08-06 13:39 | Will Lionel Messi attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.0400562951 | $48.09 |
| 08-04 12:15 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? | BUY | 0.0599437187 | $7.30 |
| 07-28 12:09 | Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump? | BUY | 0.0989999916 | $9.50 |
| 07-27 11:49 | Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0280000001 | $9.30 |
| 07-19 18:59 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0729999933 | $9.80 |
| 07-14 07:01 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0379999956 | $8.00 |
| 07-14 07:00 | Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? | BUY | 0.0188118793 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 06:58 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 07-07 13:27 | Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0049617873 | $28.60 |
| 07-07 13:27 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $40.00 |
| 07-04 22:40 | Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.00 |