0x5B07C21b2D9B3E8236C4efd7c9d72Fc04ca2de95-1764188581236
0x5b07c21b2d9b3e8236c4efd7c9d72fc04ca2de95
- Realised P&L
- $-7.3k
- Volume
- $586.2k
- Markets traded
- 230
- Open portfolio
- $13.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded230
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.708 | 0.999 | $5.5k | +$1.6k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.945 | $2.5k | +$93.23 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.815 | $2.5k | −$45.78 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No | 0.930 | 0.945 | $1.4k | +$21.87 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.640 | 0.705 | $1.1k | +$101.56 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.879 | 0.890 | $753.83 | +$9.46 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.045 | $45.00 | −$424.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.650Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
- +$1.9kat 0.891Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.4kat 0.851Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?
- +$1.0kat 0.867Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?
- +$684.48at 0.934Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:37 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.5k |
| 11-01 21:36 | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? | BUY | 0.83 | $2.5k |
| 11-01 21:31 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.89 | $332.86 |
| 11-01 21:29 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.87 | $411.51 |
| 11-01 19:37 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $299.70 |
| 11-01 19:37 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.0k |
| 10-25 21:40 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9199999978 | $82.00 |
| 10-25 21:31 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.516822542 | $79.74 |
| 10-19 21:22 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.512 | $79.00 |
| 10-17 11:45 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.91 | $2.4k |
| 10-14 08:27 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $395.48 |
| 10-14 08:23 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9950968026 | $2.8k |
| 10-06 20:04 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $79.12 |
| 10-06 20:04 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.9882954876 | $135.79 |
| 10-06 19:44 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $19.08 |