shirleyr
0x5aca56e5f991c9f44b8438e907631b3fcae0cad6
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $297.9k
- Markets traded
- 436
- Open portfolio
- $850.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded436
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · Anthropic | 0.630 | 0.978 | $489.00 | +$174.00 |
| Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.996 | $199.20 | +$15.20 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.920 | 1.000 | $90.00 | +$7.20 |
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? · No | 0.930 | 1.000 | $55.00 | +$3.85 |
| Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? · No | 0.779 | 1.000 | $10.00 | +$2.21 |
| Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $4.00 | +$1.08 |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.050 | $2.35 | −$12.69 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.029 | $0.91 | −$9.63 |
| Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.084 | $0.34 | −$0.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$381.84at 0.130Colorado State Rams vs. Saint Mary's Gaels (W)
- +$155.70at 0.240Will MrBeast say "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next YouTube video?
- +$129.93at 0.620Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-02-07?
- +$115.28at 0.560Will Trump say "Russia" or "Russian" during oil executive meetings on Friday?
- +$102.79at 0.810Will Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 14:05 | Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more? | BUY | 0.92 | $184.00 |
| 10-31 09:46 | Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $82.80 |
| 06-15 14:54 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | SELL | 0.961 | $497.80 |
| 04-23 14:05 | Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | BUY | 0.84 | $435.12 |
| 04-23 12:23 | Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? | BUY | 0.16 | $135.04 |
| 03-24 06:21 | Remote IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $102.60 |
| 03-24 06:19 | Remote IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.20 |
| 03-24 06:18 | Remote IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.36 | $168.12 |
| 03-22 16:24 | Remote IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.4 | $308.80 |
| 03-19 02:55 | Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.78 | $655.98 |
| 03-16 13:59 | Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $681.21 |
| 03-16 00:06 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $692.42 |
| 03-15 12:21 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $692.42 |
| 03-10 15:27 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $72.80 |
| 03-10 12:45 | Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m? | SELL | 0.08 | $19.36 |