0x59d184d94984b26bab2baecbef2a0c356bd407ce
0x59d184d94984b26bab2baecbef2a0c356bd407ce
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $101.8k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $17.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$726.74at 0.929Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$574.44at 0.806Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$243.72at 0.918Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
- +$134.90at 0.838US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
- +$114.51at 0.925Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 03:09 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0569999999 | $28.72 |
| 10-01 17:42 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9783255287 | $886.26 |
| 10-01 01:59 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9719999999 | $189.19 |
| 09-30 15:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $28.16 |
| 09-30 13:36 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999729 | $2.06 |
| 09-30 11:48 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.88 |
| 09-30 11:43 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999965 | $2.65 |
| 09-30 09:58 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.90 |
| 09-30 06:07 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999792 | $1.79 |
| 09-30 05:52 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $328.07 |
| 09-30 01:42 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.929999997 | $12.38 |
| 09-30 01:16 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999934 | $7.06 |
| 09-29 23:43 | Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0553851338 | $13.38 |
| 09-29 21:49 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999999 | $67.01 |
| 09-29 19:54 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9299999842 | $2.36 |