Teufel-IX
0x59553521f7b6408f932361f83c41dad860ca740b
- Realised P&L
- $-9.52
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.025 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? · Yes | 0.039 | 0.004 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.50 |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.50at 0.500Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
- +$-1.62at 0.026Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-01 23:14 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:44 | Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:42 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? | BUY | 0.0439999593 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:32 | Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for France by Feburary 1? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:17 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison? | BUY | 0.0069498913 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:14 | Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? | BUY | 0.0259259011 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:13 | Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:12 | Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 01-23 00:09 | Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |
| 01-22 22:20 | Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 01-22 22:18 | Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | SELL | 0.024 | $1.38 |
| 01-22 22:16 | Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | BUY | 0.0259999916 | $3.00 |