amazingfrog
0x5927944b074429a49d0d75c79101d8330942672b
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $58.0k
- Markets traded
- 458
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded458
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$166.73at 0.065Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor?
- +$65.24at 0.655Will Andrew Cuomo get between 30% and 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$63.82at 0.328Will NVIDIA say "Arizona" during earnings call?
- +$61.33at 0.801Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?
- +$58.81at 0.748Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-20 09:20 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $7.26 |
| 01-20 09:20 | Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | BUY | 0.65 | $5.20 |
| 01-20 09:19 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.66 | $10.56 |
| 01-20 09:14 | Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 01-20 09:14 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the Eastern Conference? | SELL | 0.986 | $26.62 |
| 01-20 04:19 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.81 |
| 01-20 04:03 | Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.20 |
| 01-20 04:03 | Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | SELL | 0.36 | $2.16 |
| 01-20 02:35 | Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.2409998963 | $1.69 |
| 01-20 02:13 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.085 | $0.68 |
| 01-20 02:13 | Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.085 | $0.60 |
| 01-20 02:01 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $5.20 |
| 01-20 01:49 | Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.27 |
| 01-20 01:35 | Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.92 |
| 01-20 00:18 | Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.899 | $17.97 |