0x59107f4ecaa181788a33ad9aae7aa6b75e928d5c
0x59107f4ecaa181788a33ad9aae7aa6b75e928d5c
- Realised P&L
- $-311.39
- Volume
- $41.4k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $1.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.255 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.270 | $0.55 | −$0.45 |
| Kings vs. Spurs · Kings | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9PM ET · Down | 0.084 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.09at 0.250Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?
- +$14.46at 0.132Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
- +$9.67at 0.176Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
- +$7.42at 0.537Bitcoin Up or Down - September 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
- +$4.93at 0.496Ethereum Up or Down - September 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 17:56 | Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 17:56 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.16 |
| 10-28 01:50 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0949999981 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0419999997 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:49 | Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 World Series MVP? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:47 | Kings vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 01:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9PM ET | BUY | 0.0839999993 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 17:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:22 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 23:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET | BUY | 0.1199999976 | $2.00 |
| 10-08 23:42 | Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.024 | $1.60 |
| 10-08 23:23 | Will Kimi (Moonshot AI) IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.017 | $0.09 |