0x580ff830a7ceadd248bcb096d3f76c737fc37d16
- Realised P&L
- $1.84
- Volume
- $230.03
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $14.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.875 | $4.07 | +$2.07 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.490 | 0.885 | $3.41 | +$1.52 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.885 | $3.16 | +$1.16 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.745 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.400 | $1.04 | −$0.96 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.110 | $0.47 | −$1.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.046 | $0.40 | −$1.60 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.390 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$4.90at 0.297Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
- +$1.92at 0.410Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.80at 0.532Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:42 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.7499999063 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 22:20 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 14:11 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 06:04 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 09:57 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:58 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 17:34 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 08:53 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 00:51 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 16:45 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 08:44 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 21:37 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 12:50 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $1.02 |
| 09-08 04:12 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:15 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |