0x57afe856badc59aeccad83ed00a9c23d95b36f3e
- Realised P&L
- $-1.52
- Volume
- $95.42
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $10.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.755 | $2.19 | +$0.19 |
| Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.455 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.915 | $1.85 | +$0.27 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.710 | $1.77 | −$0.23 |
| Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.160 | $1.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.560 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$1.02 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.790 | 0.275 | $0.70 | −$1.30 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.86at 0.390Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.13at 0.630Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
- +$1.04at 0.660Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?
- +$1.04at 0.660WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 23:15 | Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 15:14 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 07:14 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $135 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 03:02 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 10:51 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:02 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:01 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 15:52 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998066 | $1.19 |
| 07-31 19:22 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June? | BUY | 0.7599998024 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 11:20 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on July 31? | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |
| 07-30 04:29 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-28 23:41 | Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.5499999298 | $1.96 |