0x57a9964e9e0a25fbd2c23da832b302641decfcf9
0x57a9964e9e0a25fbd2c23da832b302641decfcf9
- Realised P&L
- $-10.47
- Volume
- $319.01
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $8.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.146 | 0.146 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes | 0.354 | 0.165 | $1.71 | −$1.96 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.305 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.365 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Michael Carrick be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.495 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.088 | $0.51 | −$0.49 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.050 | $0.49 | −$1.51 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.145 | $0.44 | −$0.56 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-18? · Yes | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.87at 0.631Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.67at 0.383Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.59at 0.790Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$1.36at 0.429Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.35at 0.390Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 13:17 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 13:09 | Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:13 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 00:12 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:15 | Will Michael Carrick be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 09:20 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.3799999886 | $2.67 |
| 08-12 19:49 | Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 15:21 | Will Trump post "Gianni" or "Infantino" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 15:20 | Will Trump post "World Cup" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 07-20 15:17 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 20:45 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.616 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 15:53 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 07-16 15:53 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.63 | $4.64 |
| 07-16 15:52 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.11 |
| 07-16 11:40 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |