hopedieslast
0x5739ddf8672627ce076eff5f444610a250075f1a
- Realised P&L
- $256.8k
- Volume
- $10.65M
- Markets traded
- 250
- Open portfolio
- $270.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded250
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.8kat 0.903Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$47.1kat 0.808Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$46.0kat 0.868Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$43.3kat 0.573Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?
- +$42.2kat 0.450Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 17:12 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $36.00 |
| 09-16 12:05 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $40.32 |
| 09-16 03:47 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.7k |
| 09-15 16:59 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.014 | $12.60 |
| 09-15 02:05 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $63.00 |
| 09-15 01:56 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $9.00 |
| 09-15 01:51 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1037884167 | $719.72 |
| 09-15 01:50 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 09-15 01:49 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $20.00 |
| 09-15 01:47 | Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0193124027 | $19.84 |
| 09-09 21:56 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $65.75 |
| 09-07 17:20 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1477940192 | $830.31 |
| 09-07 03:29 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1968058 | $295.21 |
| 09-06 15:20 | Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $480.64 |
| 09-04 20:27 | Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2378352 | $237.84 |