dfdded5
0x56df0612926a0713d26469e66077caf2a400afcd
- Realised P&L
- $-108.89
- Volume
- $39.1k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $201.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.954 | 0.962 | $141.10 | +$1.10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.951 | $49.51 | −$0.49 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.885 | $8.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.001 | $2.40 | −$2.4k |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.500Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$138.45at 0.500Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?
- +$24.37at 0.590Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$4.10at 0.830Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
- +$3.28at 0.470Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 10:13 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.961999999 | $125.00 |
| 08-20 10:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.73 | $100.00 |
| 08-20 10:10 | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.994 | $4.8k |
| 08-16 09:28 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999862 | $50.00 |
| 07-03 09:30 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8399999244 | $8.00 |
| 05-17 07:52 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.78 | $197.46 |
| 05-17 07:52 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7899999982 | $200.00 |
| 05-17 07:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 03-23 06:12 | Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.3k |
| 03-23 06:11 | Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.9809999997 | $2.3k |
| 03-23 06:11 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8919999943 | $15.00 |
| 03-23 06:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998285 | $0.97 |
| 10-10 18:16 | Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? | BUY | 0.8299999975 | $20.00 |
| 06-30 07:05 | Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4? | BUY | 0.9299998159 | $5.00 |
| 06-30 07:05 | Will Shedeur Sanders start a game for the Browns? | BUY | 0.8499999757 | $3.50 |