0x55b448112b13a2c783fa96a8e6af450f21c45c0c
0x55b448112b13a2c783fa96a8e6af450f21c45c0c
- Realised P&L
- $-14.61
- Volume
- $121.32
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $1.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample30 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.365 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.405 | $0.53 | −$0.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.86at 0.379Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.79at 0.550US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$1.18at 0.650Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
- +$1.16at 0.620Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.98at 0.690US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:06 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:03 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 06:57 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:36 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $207.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 00:42 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999121 | $2.19 |
| 09-07 09:54 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $332 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.19 |
| 08-23 11:49 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.81 |
| 08-19 12:38 | Will Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? | BUY | 0.4699999335 | $2.19 |
| 08-16 22:09 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899998974 | $1.21 |
| 08-14 02:47 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14? | BUY | 0.6099999415 | $2.19 |
| 08-13 18:40 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.4499999486 | $2.19 |
| 08-13 10:13 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 13? | BUY | 0.3299999307 | $2.19 |
| 08-08 11:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999687 | $2.19 |
| 08-07 02:10 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.19 |