0x550BAb73F65997a4AeB69dc5D544e15831072BC5-1764943521616
0x550bab73f65997a4aeb69dc5d544e15831072bc5
- Realised P&L
- $-79.25
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $1.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? · Yes | 0.636 | 0.060 | $1.90 | −$18.10 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.54 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.32 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.239 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.00 |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.56at 0.360Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?
- +$33.16at 0.376Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?
- +$21.26at 0.701Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?
- +$17.04at 0.540US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$9.39at 0.760Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-16 20:52 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1829999961 | $33.54 |
| 06-16 20:48 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.141 | $25.92 |
| 06-11 18:16 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 18:15 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.16 | $19.91 |
| 06-04 14:43 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1679999943 | $20.91 |
| 06-04 14:42 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.16 | $20.00 |
| 06-01 15:30 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $16.84 |
| 06-01 15:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.998 | $21.23 |
| 05-13 23:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7299999942 | $15.00 |
| 05-13 23:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 23:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 05-13 23:53 | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 05-05 22:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.998 | $39.39 |
| 04-18 19:47 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.991 | $9.80 |
| 04-18 19:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.759999998 | $30.00 |