gunnar242
0x54653b7188d5d285ebbd3379158583193ecd5133
- Realised P&L
- $-1.20M
- Volume
- $4.01M
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $17.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-29.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.920 | $9.2k | +$4.7k |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.018 | $8.5k | −$31.1k |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.080 | $238.50 | −$1.8k |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.12 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minutes and 2 hours? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.12 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$944.46 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes? · Yes | 0.295 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.4k |
| Will Stefon Diggs win the Super Bowl LX MVP? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$732.69 |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours and 15 minutes? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$177.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.2kat 0.808Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$45.1kat 0.850Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$8.8kat 0.246US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$6.4kat 0.816US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$4.8kat 0.637Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 19:20 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.028 | $28.00 |
| 09-13 19:19 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.027 | $13.50 |
| 09-13 19:19 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.026 | $39.00 |
| 09-13 19:18 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $39.05 |
| 09-13 19:11 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.024 | $84.60 |
| 09-13 16:47 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.0216579582 | $49.38 |
| 05-28 16:41 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.9899973895 | $7.6k |
| 05-28 16:41 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.9883269231 | $205.57 |
| 05-28 16:41 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.9866226415 | $52.29 |
| 05-28 16:41 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.987 | $118.44 |
| 05-28 16:41 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.9868 | $98.68 |
| 05-28 16:41 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.9858333333 | $118.30 |
| 05-28 16:40 | Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | BUY | 0.985 | $118.20 |
| 05-28 16:40 | Claude 4.8 released by June 30? | BUY | 0.9899362795 | $6.9k |
| 05-28 16:40 | Claude 4.8 released by June 30? | BUY | 0.9876 | $98.76 |