0x546029093abad5c5615f72c903908baccfc8c7b5
0x546029093abad5c5615f72c903908baccfc8c7b5
- Realised P&L
- $-7.8k
- Volume
- $47.3k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-16.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.337 | 0.095 | $1.2k | −$3.2k |
| SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans? · Yes | 0.564 | 0.875 | $154.11 | +$54.77 |
| Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%? · No | 0.686 | 0.735 | $117.60 | +$7.80 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.130 | $104.39 | −$406.90 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.485 | $19.89 | −$1.43 |
| Will a Democrat win North Carolina Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? · Yes | 0.626 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will Trump win Mississippi by 20+ points? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$170.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.725Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$680.00at 0.320SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
- +$584.90at 0.641SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
- +$106.28at 0.741SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?
- +$45.09at 0.777Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:18 | Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%? | BUY | 0.68625 | $109.80 |
| 09-15 19:55 | SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans? | SELL | 0.8359021088 | $96.32 |
| 09-15 19:54 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $279.00 |
| 09-13 20:34 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15? | BUY | 0.9212054718 | $476.00 |
| 09-13 18:02 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $231.00 |
| 09-13 17:58 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.13 | $41.33 |
| 09-08 19:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6290218695 | $200.00 |
| 09-08 18:38 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election? | BUY | 0.52 | $21.32 |
| 09-08 18:21 | SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans? | SELL | 0.85 | $50.52 |
| 09-08 11:42 | SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans? | BUY | 0.5640134884 | $197.85 |
| 07-06 01:34 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.62 | $15.50 |
| 07-06 01:33 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.6372496577 | $495.79 |
| 06-17 00:20 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999989 | $100.00 |
| 06-17 00:19 | SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? | BUY | 0.8326237318 | $33.37 |
| 04-10 21:03 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $250.00 |