0x54376e7d8e508e32e4ced02ebb678e4e7ceb895a
- Realised P&L
- $-345.42
- Volume
- $10.5k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $88.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$81.65at 0.521US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
- +$16.29at 0.176Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$15.86at 0.207Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$13.22at 0.192US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$9.72at 0.789Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 14:43 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.129999999 | $8.00 |
| 09-11 13:45 | Will Erling Haaland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | BUY | 0.373071042 | $8.00 |
| 09-11 11:27 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $8.00 |
| 09-10 10:08 | Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | BUY | 0.599999985 | $8.00 |
| 09-10 06:57 | Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $8.00 |
| 09-09 03:40 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.1365853649 | $8.00 |
| 09-08 21:36 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.129999999 | $8.00 |
| 09-08 16:04 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.1399999979 | $8.00 |
| 09-07 20:58 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6222222153 | $8.00 |
| 09-07 19:32 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.1499999981 | $8.00 |
| 09-07 05:10 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $80.00 |
| 09-06 16:22 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.2024096211 | $8.00 |
| 09-06 16:21 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.1268292546 | $8.00 |
| 08-28 11:26 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999889 | $8.00 |
| 08-28 09:09 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.0309999961 | $8.00 |