0x54284fb14487fb3c42f5eac2de5cb831a98c20eb
0x54284fb14487fb3c42f5eac2de5cb831a98c20eb
- Realised P&L
- $-4.15
- Volume
- $260.22
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $9.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.475 | $4.52 | +$2.52 |
| Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.420 | $1.83 | +$0.83 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.930 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.535 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September? · No | 0.470 | 0.285 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.115 | $0.48 | −$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$4.38at 0.321Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.41at 0.370US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.55at 0.440Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?
- +$2.40at 0.460Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of August 17 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 09:06 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 08:59 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 00:39 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 03:55 | Will Elon tweet 880-919 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:15 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 10:44 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 02:21 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 15:06 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999345 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 06:49 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999063 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 19:52 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 19:41 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 08:44 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-01 09:20 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-27 12:42 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-27 04:40 | Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.619999969 | $2.00 |