blackswan111
0x54236deb8dbd88f56e42a355227a4a319dcb0170
- Realised P&L
- $-106.80
- Volume
- $117.2k
- Markets traded
- 295
- Open portfolio
- $110.94
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded295
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.991 | 0.994 | $20.03 | +$0.05 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $19.59 | +$0.04 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.953 | 0.981 | $18.00 | +$0.50 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? · Yes | 0.976 | 0.975 | $17.68 | −$0.02 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No | 0.964 | 0.996 | $13.69 | +$0.43 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.997 | 0.989 | $10.98 | −$0.09 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.981 | $10.97 | +$0.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.53at 0.631Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$10.67at 0.360Will Kamala say "Trump" 10 or more times during Univision town hall on October 10?
- +$6.89at 0.750Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 14-20?
- +$6.61at 0.285Linea airdrop in 2024?
- +$6.55at 0.749Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on April 19?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 13:42 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.9909999998 | $19.98 |
| 09-10 13:41 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.9969999937 | $11.07 |
| 08-24 13:34 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 08-24 13:31 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.9969999769 | $20.00 |
| 08-24 13:29 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.55 |
| 07-24 20:31 | Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.541407474 | $48.68 |
| 07-15 20:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9639999753 | $13.26 |
| 07-15 20:14 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9969999743 | $19.00 |
| 07-15 20:13 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? | BUY | 0.9759999921 | $17.70 |
| 07-15 20:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.55 |
| 06-22 13:10 | Will Solana dip to $10 in June? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.50 |
| 06-22 13:09 | Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9989999574 | $11.50 |
| 06-22 13:07 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.9969999611 | $18.20 |
| 05-11 15:02 | Will Solana dip to $10 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.03 |
| 05-11 15:01 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.9809999308 | $13.15 |