blackswan111
0x54236deb8dbd88f56e42a355227a4a319dcb0170
- Realised P&L
- $-109.76
- Volume
- $117.2k
- Markets traded
- 298
- Open portfolio
- $111.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded298
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $22.55 | +$0.05 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.953 | 0.992 | $18.21 | +$0.71 |
| Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? · Yes | 0.976 | 0.983 | $17.83 | +$0.13 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? · No | 0.988 | 1.000 | $17.46 | +$0.21 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.984 | $12.86 | +$0.11 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.997 | 1.000 | $11.10 | +$0.03 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.963 | 0.990 | $11.07 | +$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.53at 0.631Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$10.67at 0.360Will Kamala say "Trump" 10 or more times during Univision town hall on October 10?
- +$6.61at 0.285Linea airdrop in 2024?
- +$4.36at 0.960Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
- +$3.72at 0.680Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 00:49 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 18:35 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $12.75 |
| 10-03 18:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.988 | $17.25 |
| 10-03 18:30 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.50 |
| 09-10 13:42 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.9909999998 | $19.98 |
| 09-10 13:41 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.9969999937 | $11.07 |
| 08-24 13:34 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.00 |
| 08-24 13:31 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.9969999769 | $20.00 |
| 08-24 13:29 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $19.55 |
| 07-24 20:31 | Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.541407474 | $48.68 |
| 07-15 20:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9639999753 | $13.26 |
| 07-15 20:14 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9969999743 | $19.00 |
| 07-15 20:13 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? | BUY | 0.9759999921 | $17.70 |
| 07-15 20:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.55 |
| 06-22 13:10 | Will Solana dip to $10 in June? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.50 |