0x5413b26250639013b79b961f0448b3e8cce07d87
0x5413b26250639013b79b961f0448b3e8cce07d87
- Realised P&L
- $2.08
- Volume
- $650.49
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $23.95
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Simon peak at Category 4? · Yes | 0.987 | 0.975 | $3.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 15? · No | 0.980 | 1.000 | $3.12 | +$0.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 15? · Yes | 0.983 | 0.995 | $3.10 | +$0.04 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.507 | 0.540 | $2.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will XRP reach $2.00 in October? · No | 0.970 | 0.969 | $2.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.855 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.919 | 0.908 | $1.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.954 | 0.941 | $1.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.054 | $1.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 15? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.999 | $1.05 | +$0.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on October 15? · No | 0.950 | 0.882 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.65at 0.466Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 13?
- +$6.29at 0.491Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 13?
- +$4.48at 0.691Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on October 13?
- +$2.31at 0.764Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 14?
- +$1.54at 0.922Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 06:54 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9889999922 | $1.02 |
| 10-15 06:53 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9789999971 | $1.02 |
| 10-15 06:53 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.02 |
| 10-15 06:31 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9799039293 | $1.02 |
| 10-15 06:31 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9699999905 | $1.02 |
| 10-15 06:31 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.9699999905 | $1.02 |
| 10-15 06:31 | Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on October 15? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.02 |
| 10-14 18:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.4799999302 | $1.10 |
| 10-14 18:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | SELL | 0.74 | $1.40 |
| 10-14 18:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5799999156 | $1.10 |
| 10-14 17:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | SELL | 0.981 | $1.12 |
| 10-14 17:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $1.10 |
| 10-14 17:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | SELL | 0.79 | $1.24 |
| 10-14 17:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | BUY | 0.6999998727 | $1.10 |
| 10-14 15:18 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on October 14? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.73 |