PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

alternativelog

0x5348b7cf979101886dd278d56460b8cb5d94e4ff

Realised P&L
$-2.1k
Volume
$238.4k
Markets traded
158
Open portfolio
$41.07

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded158
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration74.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration97.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0190.020$40.00+$2.00
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes0.0840.004$1.07$18.93
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? · No0.0180.000$0.00$20.00
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026? · Yes0.0390.000$0.00$25.66
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00$27.00
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? · No0.0180.000$0.00$20.00
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00$142.09
Jony Ive out at OpenAI before August? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00$5.00
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes0.0930.000$0.00$150.00
Will Elon tweet 625–649 times August 8–August 15? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00$10.00
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? · No0.0300.000$0.00$20.00
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00$5.00
OpenAI browser in July? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00$20.00
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00$3.00
Elon no longer world's richest before August? · Yes0.0420.000$0.00$40.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-15 12:56GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?BUY0.0109070357$3.00
06-15 12:56GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?BUY0.0098048828$2.00
06-15 12:55Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.0424189874$80.00
06-15 12:54Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.0930219264$150.00
06-15 08:25Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.0515085089$17.79
06-12 06:48SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?BUY0.0179865182$20.00
06-12 06:47SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?BUY0.0899999992$100.00
06-10 15:26SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?BUY0.0929276498$90.00
05-25 11:32Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?BUY0.0843866678$20.00
05-25 11:23Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?BUY0.0456851337$10.00
05-25 11:22SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?BUY0.0349999967$10.00
05-25 11:21Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?SELL0.031$13.48
05-25 11:21Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?BUY0.0344901437$15.00
05-25 11:20Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?BUY0.0139999993$20.00
04-27 11:44Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ETBUY0.1699998861$0.88