0x534420728A3CeaC6bea1da681080ac4d64e0a26e-1776911259200
0x534420728a3ceac6bea1da681080ac4d64e0a26e
- Realised P&L
- $6.79
- Volume
- $126.16
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $2.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.939 | 0.981 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.135 | $0.27 | −$0.73 |
| Will Comey insult Trump by Friday? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31? · No | 0.952 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.475 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.33at 0.120Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.51at 0.482Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
- +$0.79at 0.950Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
- +$0.06at 0.940Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August?
- +$0.04at 0.720Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 02:40 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.4749997862 | $1.00 |
| 05-20 07:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9599998618 | $5.00 |
| 05-20 07:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9399999662 | $5.00 |
| 05-20 07:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 05-09 18:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9389997014 | $2.00 |
| 05-09 18:48 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.03 |
| 05-09 18:48 | Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 05-09 18:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL | 0.98 | $2.01 |
| 05-09 18:34 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $8.32 |
| 05-01 17:17 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 05-01 17:14 | Will Comey insult Trump by Friday? | BUY | 0.024386913 | $1.00 |
| 05-01 15:51 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.9719999981 | $2.00 |
| 04-28 06:05 | Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $0.93 |
| 04-27 11:31 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $1.05 |
| 04-27 02:47 | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY | 0.7099994391 | $0.97 |