0x53176bdcc210bacc926d503a9c8373c388bd573a
0x53176bdcc210bacc926d503a9c8373c388bd573a
- Realised P&L
- $10.04
- Volume
- $311.18
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $5.52
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.910 | $2.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.620 | $1.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.230 | $0.92 | −$1.08 |
| Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.133 | $0.68 | −$1.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$4.66at 0.306Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?
- +$2.50at 0.450Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 17:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 08:31 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 23:00 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 13:21 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 05:17 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 20:24 | Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.6699999163 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 11:26 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 12:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 04:38 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 20:17 | Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 12:08 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 04:06 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.7499999063 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 20:05 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 12:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 03:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |