MarioAraez
0x52f4fcb1b82f23dfa3e195b17c01d98c8165ab89
- Realised P&L
- $245.44
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $446.42
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.976 | $244.14 | +$74.04 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.445 | $202.27 | −$47.73 |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? · Yes | 0.675 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? · Yes | 0.497 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$154.48at 0.412Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
- +$134.50at 0.317Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$106.04at 0.657Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
- +$65.98at 0.574BMW Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Vitaliy Sachko
- +$65.90at 0.539Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 06:24 | Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? | BUY | 0.6799999997 | $170.10 |
| 06-23 12:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5499999997 | $250.00 |
| 05-09 06:41 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.21 |
| 05-09 06:35 | Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6475393503 | $200.00 |
| 05-09 06:23 | Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4199999985 | $150.00 |
| 05-09 06:21 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.61 | $289.01 |
| 05-06 19:30 | Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.27 |
| 05-05 10:38 | Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? | BUY | 0.6746031723 | $75.00 |
| 04-20 17:23 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.5075060139 | $25.00 |
| 04-20 14:53 | Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.9921980983 | $100.17 |
| 04-15 11:54 | Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic | BUY | 0.6599999988 | $83.27 |
| 04-15 08:42 | BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | BUY | 0.5799999988 | $48.74 |
| 04-14 10:01 | Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.4971198862 | $75.00 |
| 04-14 09:58 | Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? | BUY | 0.2850122811 | $37.71 |
| 04-14 09:58 | Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%? | BUY | 0.3362571453 | $37.88 |