MarioAraez
0x52f4fcb1b82f23dfa3e195b17c01d98c8165ab89
- Realised P&L
- $467.08
- Volume
- $8.5k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $661.36
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$200.05at 0.560Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$134.50at 0.317Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$106.04at 0.657Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
- +$96.33at 0.293Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
- +$77.87at 0.689Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 17:21 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999974 | $53.00 |
| 10-29 17:20 | Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election? | BUY | 0.5799999992 | $75.00 |
| 10-29 17:09 | Will Gintautas Kindurys win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election? | BUY | 0.5099999984 | $50.00 |
| 10-29 16:54 | Will Pabel Muñoz win the next Quito mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5425694638 | $50.00 |
| 10-29 16:44 | Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? | BUY | 0.309226932 | $40.00 |
| 10-29 16:39 | Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti | SELL | 0.74 | $249.99 |
| 10-29 16:36 | Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? | BUY | 0.5179282844 | $50.00 |
| 10-29 16:21 | Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.6799999997 | $180.00 |
| 10-29 16:15 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 10-29 16:13 | Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti | BUY | 0.7399999996 | $250.00 |
| 10-29 16:09 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999995 | $150.00 |
| 08-05 06:24 | Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia? | BUY | 0.6799999997 | $170.10 |
| 06-23 12:01 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5499999997 | $250.00 |
| 05-09 06:41 | Will the Conservative Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.21 |
| 05-09 06:35 | Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? | BUY | 0.6475393503 | $200.00 |