Marcocelestin20
0x52cf96d396e62a149d266f92021ba6a4cb48946a
- Realised P&L
- $-226.51
- Volume
- $47.5k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $8.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.043 | $5.67 | −$4.33 |
| Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.025 | $3.06 | −$6.94 |
| Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-1.00at 0.052Big Game: Scorigami?
- +$-1.00at 0.001Will James Harden get traded to Houston Rockets?
- +$-1.00at 0.010Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
- +$-1.00at 0.001Will James Harden get traded to Minnesota Timberwolves?
- +$-1.00at 0.005Will James Harden get traded to Toronto Raptors?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-04 06:49 | Will Artemis II launch by February 28? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.26 |
| 02-04 06:38 | Will Aperture by Harry Styles be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14? | BUY | 0.078 | $2.41 |
| 02-04 06:08 | Will James Harden get traded to Cleveland Cavaliers? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 02-04 06:07 | Will James Harden get traded to Miami Heat? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.20 |
| 02-04 06:07 | Will James Harden get traded to New York Knicks? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.53 |
| 02-04 06:06 | Will James Harden get traded to Los Angeles Lakers? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.05 |
| 02-04 06:06 | Will James Harden get traded to Minnesota Timberwolves? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.12 |
| 02-04 06:06 | Will James Harden get traded to Houston Rockets? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.20 |
| 02-04 06:05 | Will James Harden not be traded? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.32 |
| 02-04 06:01 | Big Game: Scorigami? | BUY | 0.0519999513 | $1.00 |
| 02-04 05:55 | U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28? | BUY | 0.0552631545 | $15.00 |
| 02-04 05:43 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 02-04 05:42 | Will Hillary Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein? | BUY | 0.0859999642 | $2.00 |
| 02-04 05:38 | Will James Harden get traded to Toronto Raptors? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 02-04 05:36 | Will the US strike Yemen next? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |