HYDefire
0x52ca2981dc8cf1c31684194960068bbc0be21c58
- Realised P&L
- $-4.4k
- Volume
- $37.0k
- Markets traded
- 1,185
- Open portfolio
- $86.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,185
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration8.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$562.70at 0.712ETH above $1,900 on April 11?
- +$134.78at 0.690Will Trump smile in his mugshot?
- +$96.21at 0.839Will $ETH be above $1550 on March 17?
- +$83.00at 0.585Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?
- +$82.65at 0.869Will $ETH be above $1700 on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 14:43 | Will Trump say "Thomas Jefferson" in August? | BUY | 0.8099999757 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 14:43 | Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 14:34 | Will Trump say "World War" this week? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 14:33 | Will Trump say "Hunter" this week? | BUY | 0.8299999087 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 14:33 | Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 14:32 | Will Trump say "Human Printer" this week? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 14:19 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | BUY | 0.8009993288 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 14:05 | Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 14:02 | Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.4699998919 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 13:53 | Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.7899995339 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 13:53 | Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 08-20 13:40 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $3.00 |
| 08-20 13:34 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.859999656 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 13:30 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 13:25 | Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |