Ivan707
0x52a95a757ce8c1e965f5cf0b59048e927ee381e8
- Realised P&L
- $-4.75
- Volume
- $266.72
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $31.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.785 | $12.08 | +$2.08 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? · No | 0.580 | 0.695 | $5.99 | +$0.99 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.435 | $4.35 | −$0.65 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.275 | $3.62 | −$1.38 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.195 | $3.15 | −$2.35 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.022 | $1.15 | −$3.85 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.017 | $1.03 | −$6.47 |
| Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.021 | $0.17 | −$4.83 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.47at 0.860Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 31, 2026?
- +$-0.22at 0.181Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 13:03 | Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 13:02 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.179 | $5.11 |
| 07-30 09:18 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999716 | $5.50 |
| 07-30 09:14 | Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $5.46 |
| 07-29 09:03 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $7.50 |
| 07-29 08:58 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.0979999826 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 08:55 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1749999746 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 08:50 | Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 08:47 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.6299999017 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 08:41 | Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.5799999954 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 08:38 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $10.00 |
| 07-29 08:37 | Ukraine strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 07-29 08:36 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |