gerkgerk11
0x528989b42d04bf28829a994c2b8bc87da1eaf09f
- Realised P&L
- $-68.93
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $192.21
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the biggest earthquake on October 2, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.990 | $99.00 | +$49.00 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? · Yes | 0.168 | 0.135 | $67.50 | −$16.50 |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.331 | 0.115 | $25.27 | −$47.46 |
| Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m? · No | 0.300 | 0.305 | $0.44 | +$0.01 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? · No | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.95at 0.900US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- +$0.66at 0.320Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.500Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 31.5 and 32 million views on day 6?
- +$0.40at 0.500Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 31.5 and 32 million views on day 6?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 23:24 | Over $60M committed to the Jumper public sale? | BUY | 0.032 | $0.96 |
| 09-30 21:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.32 | $88.07 |
| 09-30 11:24 | Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 09-30 11:20 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.22 | $9.95 |
| 09-30 11:18 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.22 | $89.05 |
| 09-30 10:19 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.68 | $68.00 |
| 09-30 08:27 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.982 | $119.20 |
| 09-29 21:00 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.0405530115 | $5.22 |
| 09-29 20:10 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-29 19:23 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 09-29 18:56 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.0259999999 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 18:53 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | SELL | 0.024 | $4.80 |
| 09-28 22:46 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.38 | $45.60 |
| 09-28 22:37 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $48.00 |
| 09-28 21:40 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | SELL | 0.4152770449 | $15.74 |