0x522d302d9e3597ae00d9cac80491e66714f8d7fd
0x522d302d9e3597ae00d9cac80491e66714f8d7fd
- Realised P&L
- $7.01
- Volume
- $412.22
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $11.54
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.994 | $3.11 | +$1.11 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? · No | 0.430 | 0.800 | $1.86 | +$0.86 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.645 | $1.68 | −$0.32 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.885 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of September 28 2026? · No | 0.230 | 0.235 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September? · No | 0.460 | 0.430 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 28 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.295 | $0.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.545 | $0.69 | −$0.31 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.253 | 0.091 | $0.36 | −$0.64 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$4.01at 0.339Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $580 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 05:48 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 21:48 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 13:48 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 05:39 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 21:30 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:50 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:50 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2529999469 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 17:41 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 09:40 | Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 01:04 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on September 23? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 17:04 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $187.50 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999966 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 20:52 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 20:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2431078913 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 11:37 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999438 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 20:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |