diogosimons
0x51ff8c5dc222eeccb7521751eb7d2e7e2f6a6f8c
- Realised P&L
- $-25.23
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 160
- Open portfolio
- $18.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded160
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.97at 0.066Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1?
- +$13.20at 0.505Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
- +$9.84at 0.458Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
- +$8.04at 0.437Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
- +$7.87at 0.567Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 00:51 | Will Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | SELL | 0.1939537815 | $4.62 |
| 10-03 19:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 18:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 18:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 17:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.96 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 17:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET | BUY | 0.8 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 16:53 | Will Roseana Sarney win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election? | BUY | 0.2099999983 | $5.00 |
| 10-03 16:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | BUY | 0.8599997764 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:35 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:06 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 01:16 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0579999977 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 01:11 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 01:10 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |