0x51C8Dbac7624F214e9aFf815DDcA49B7639A22d8-1766273812029
0x51c8dbac7624f214e9aff815ddca49b7639a22d8
- Realised P&L
- $476.05
- Volume
- $35.6k
- Markets traded
- 97
- Open portfolio
- $88.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded97
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample48 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$208.95at 0.700Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
- +$148.11at 0.770Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$65.71at 0.462England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$61.69at 0.564Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$50.67at 0.665Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 20:38 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.983 | $130.94 |
| 09-12 20:38 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.36 | $15.00 |
| 09-12 20:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 09-12 20:35 | Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.0215675295 | $9.96 |
| 09-01 02:02 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.982 | $353.65 |
| 09-01 02:01 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $28.51 |
| 08-24 23:54 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.7489999538 | $10.00 |
| 08-18 18:18 | Will Enzo Fernandez join Manchester City? | SELL | 0.31 | $2.58 |
| 08-08 12:21 | Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? | BUY | 0.6359999985 | $12.00 |
| 08-08 09:10 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | BUY | 0.8399999975 | $40.00 |
| 08-08 00:55 | Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona? | BUY | 0.6599999954 | $40.00 |
| 08-08 00:46 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 00:46 | Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1399999948 | $20.00 |
| 08-08 00:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999451 | $4.00 |
| 08-08 00:08 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $10.00 |